Three ways this ends.
The question under every withdrawal rate isn’t just “will the pot last?” — it’s “will it last as long as I do?” From your age, your pot and your draw: the odds, year by year, that you’re alive and funded, alive and broke, or dead. It’s the chart behind a line I mean literally: I don’t want a portfolio that only works if I die on schedule.
The Three Endings
A 3.33% withdrawal rate — ×30 your spend.
EU-27 life table — women outlive men by years, and the odds move with it.
The verdict
0.3%
the odds the pot dies before you do
By 70, ‘broke’ is a ≈0% ending; ‘dead’ is a 15% one.
broke ≈0%
dead 15%
broke ≈0%
dead 34%
broke 0.2%
dead 70%
broke ≈0%
dead 98%
The pot outlasting you is the overwhelming ending. The question left isn’t the money — it’s the years.
History as the odds: your mix walks all 152 start years of the long US record — the only century-and-a-half record there is, used as proxy — wrapping so every cohort runs full length; real terms, rebalanced yearly, the draw taken at each year’s start. Death odds: Eurostat’s EU-27 life table (2024), extended past 94 the standard actuarial way. Money and mortality treated as independent. Education, not advice — nobody’s odds are the average’s.
After Rich, Broke or Dead (Engaging Data) — the idea, rebuilt European. Mortality: Eurostat demo_mlifetable, EU-27, 2024, CC BY 4.0. Markets: Robert Shiller’s long-run US series, 1871–2022.
The link carries these exact numbers — nothing about you is stored.
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Nothing here is financial or investment advice — it’s arithmetic and education. Every tool runs in your browser; nothing you type is sent anywhere or saved. Decisions about your money are yours, ideally with a licensed adviser. I’m happily not one.
Bring me a challenge.
The Exit Audit, then ninety minutes: a straight verdict, real alternatives with their pros and cons, and your first move. If you want someone to nod along, I’m the wrong person to pay.