Same returns. Different order. Different life.
Two portfolios earn the exact same average over thirty years — but one hits its bad decade first, while you’re drawing it down. That order is the biggest risk to an early exit, and it’s why I count 3.33%, not 4%.
The First Bad Decade
Drawing €30,000 a year (3.33% of the pot), real.
The bad-first path, by rate
Same returns, reversed
€113k bad decade first
The lucky twin — same returns, best decade first — ends with €2.4M. Identical average. The only difference is which decade arrived while you were drawing the pot down.
A stylised bad-vs-good decade, not a forecast — the same set of yearly returns in reverse order, so the only difference is timing. Real markets are messier; for the full stress test — including whether you'd be alive to see it — see The Three Endings. Not advice.
Nothing here is financial or investment advice — it’s arithmetic and education. Every tool runs in your browser; nothing you type is sent anywhere or saved. Decisions about your money are yours, ideally with a licensed adviser. I’m happily not one.
Bring me a challenge.
The Exit Audit, then ninety minutes: a straight verdict, real alternatives with their pros and cons, and your first move. If you want someone to nod along, I’m the wrong person to pay.