Glossary

4% rule

A guideline from US research suggesting you can withdraw 4% of your portfolio in year one, then adjust that amount for inflation each year, with a low chance of running out over 30 years. It came from the Trinity Study and assumes a US stock-and-bond mix.

What it means for you

A quick sanity check for "how big must my pot be?", but 30 years is short for an early exit, so many treat it as a ceiling rather than a target.

My take

Antiquated and misused: good idea, wrong application. It comes from a study where ending year 30 with zero still counted as a success. That's not my definition of one.

Read the thinkingThe number The maths from the talk: how big the pot, why I count thirty times spending rather than twenty-five, and what I actually hold. Still not advice, just my own sums, shown.

Every term, in plain English, on one page: the full glossary. Education, not advice.

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